The best place to look for evidence of its proximity is in the work of Ebiquity. Sandwiched between the overstated futurology of digital mavens and the smooth empirical defensiveness of traditional TV companies, Ebiquity repeatedly and correctly suggested that TV remained the superior advertising medium.

Its 2019 publication ‘TV at the Tipping Point’ made headlines not just because Ebiquity suggested that TV’s seemingly eternal superiority was beginning to fade, but because it came from a company that had been so bullish, and so on the money, about TV’s positive prospects in the past.

In a new report, ‘Mind the Gap’, Ebiquity has another year of data to add to its initial modelling. Its researchers aren’t just certain that TV is approaching a tipping point, they now admit they underestimated it last year.

The new data suggests there will be a slight increase in the number of people aged over 55 that linear TV advertising will impact in 2022 (versus what was delivered in 2018). But in younger demographics that impact has begun to decline more dramatically than Ebiquity initially projected.

The same ad shown on linear TV in 2018 will impact around 60% fewer teenagers, 50% fewer 18- to 24-year-olds and a third fewer 35- to 44-year-olds by the year 2022.

Chart: Ebiquity
In a more fluid, efficient marketplace, supply and demand would kick in to stabilise things. TV’s lessened linear reach would be offset by lower spot prices, enabling advertisers to spend the same money to acquire more TV advertising and thus reach the same giant slice of the British market. But it is not that simple.

There are limits to the amount of advertising inventory available. TV companies have also proven remarkably intransigent at reducing prices. And, finally, there is a growing proportion of various target markets that are simply not reachable with traditional linear TV advertising at all anymore.

Before this starts sounding like another fatalistic fluff piece about TV, let’s pause and pour some empirical cold water onto the death trope. We are still talking about the middle of the new decade before things change significantly for linear TV advertising. For most marketing managers, the only focus should be financial year 2020-21. For that time span, TV remains the predominant source of video for most target markets, if you can afford to advertise there.

Quoting directly from the Ebiquity report is useful at this point. Despite all the depressing data within it, Ebiquity concludes that TV “remains the best option for brands to build mass audiences at scale. TV continues to hold the crown as the primary driver of ROI”.

Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.marketingweek.com